Abstract:
The prediction of cloud-to-ground lightning and the verification of the lightning forecast probability equations are examined. Lightning is predicted for three days for the 00-03 UTC time period from the 12, 9, 6 and 3-hr forecasts and the 00-hr analysis. Lightning prediction improves as the forecasts approach the analysis time. Of the three forecast days two days are scored for verification. A forecast Bias near 1 was obtained for the two days with a POD > 0.55, FAR < 0.50 and CSI > 0.40 for the 10% probability. Strengths and weaknesses of the forecast equations are discussed with possible solutions for improvement of the predictive scheme.
Paper available upon request.